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Soccer Expected Goals xG Simple Model Calculator

xG ≈ (angle/90) × exp(−distance/20) — simplified chance quality.

Estimates expected goals (xG) for a shot in soccer/football using a simplified exponential model based on shot distance and angle. Real xG models use many more features.

Dr. Helena Ortiz By Dr. Helena Ortiz
Published Last reviewed 1 min read

Inputs

Results

Enter values and click Calculate to see results.
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How to use this calculator

  1. Fill in the inputs above using the units you already have.
  2. Values update automatically as you type — no submit button needed.
  3. Hover any result row for the underlying formula and intermediate values.

Formula

xG = (angle_deg / 90) × exp(−distance_m / 20)

In depth

Estimates expected goals (xG) for a shot in soccer/football using a simplified exponential model based on shot distance and angle. Real xG models use many more features.